HM Treasury’s Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change has concluded that strong action now will avoid the worst impacts of global warming but says the cuts demanded by scientists are not commercially viable.
The Review says it would be too costly to stabilise greenhouse gas levels at or near today’s 430ppm CO2e, so the objective should be to stabilise levels in the 500-550ppm range, which would only cost about 1% of annual GDP, if action started now.
“Tackling climate change is the pro-growth strategy for the longer term, and it can be done in a way that does not cap the aspirations for growth of rich or poor countries,” it says.
Effective adaptation of long-term investment patterns, such as climate-proofing buildings, could prove challenging for private markets, especially with uncertain information, unless those who pay reap the benefits.
“There will be little financial incentive for developers to increase resilience of new buildings unless property buyers discriminate between properties on the basis of vulnerability to future climate,” it says.
The report identifies land-use change as a key threat (mainly due to deforestation) and planning as a means of encouraging investment in buildings, with OECD countries currently investing $1.5 trillion annually in infrastructure and buildings.
The Review commends the policy using areas in the south and east of England for accelerated housing growth. However, it does admit there is a growing risk of flooding associated with climate change.
It says moving properties from floodplains to non-floodplains would reduce flood risks by 89-96% outside the Thames Gateway. But in the Gateway more than 90% of development land lies in the floodplain, although a sequential approach could still reduce flood losses by 40-52% for the initial tranche of housing.
Source:
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stern_review_report.cfm |